Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) today forecasted that a low-pressure area is likely to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal within the next 24 hours under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining region.

According to the forecast, the system is expected to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over the central parts of the south Bay of Bengal and adjoining west-central Bay during the subsequent 48 hours.

The IMD’s Tropical Weather Outlook issued today said that most numerical models, including NCEP, ECMWF, ECAI, IMD GFS, GEFS, and BFS, are indicating the development of a low-pressure area over the southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal between October 21 and 22. The system is likely to intensify into a depression between October 22 and 24.

Prediction by weather models

Among the models, the GFS group suggests a stronger intensification up to a cyclonic storm stage. The ECMWF, however, indicates a relatively weaker system that may intensify only up to the depression or deep depression stage.

While the GFS projection points to landfall along the Andhra Pradesh coast, the ECMWF model suggests that the system may initially move towards the Andhra coast till around October 22 before turning north-northeastwards and crossing over the Odisha coast as a well-marked low-pressure area (WMLPA).

Meanwhile, the NCEP GFS model indicates possible landfall north of Machilipatnam, while the IMD GFS model places it slightly south of that region as a deep depression.

The IMD will issue more detailed forecasts once the low-pressure area forms over the Bay of Bengal.

Rainfall forecast for Odisha

The Regional Meteorological Centre here today issued a Yellow Warning for several districts of Odisha for today and tomorrow.

Thunderstorm with lightning accompanied with gusty surface wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapara, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam, Gajapati, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Dhenkanal, Angul, Boudh, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Malkangiri, and Koraput today, the Meteorological Centre said.

Thunderstorm with lightning accompanied with gusty surface wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of   Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam, Gajapati, Boudh, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Koraput, and Malkangiri tomorrow, it added.