Bhubaneswar: Is Odisha facing a cyclone threat next week? Global weather models are indicating the possibility of a new weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal around September 20-22, although it is too early to determine whether it will intensify into a cyclone.

According to weather expert Professor Surendranath Pashupalak, models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) are showing signals of a new system developing over the Bay of Bengal during the period.

In an assessment dated September 15, Pashupalak said both models were showing broadly similar indications regarding the formation of the system and its possible subsequent organisation.

However, he cautioned that considerable uncertainty remains over the system’s intensity, movement and potential landfall location.

The system could evolve from a cyclonic circulation into a low-pressure area and subsequently a depression. The possibility of it intensifying into a cyclone cannot be ruled out at this stage, he said.

If the system strengthens, coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal would need to be closely monitored between September 23 and 27. However, it would be premature to identify any specific landfall location at this stage, Pashupalak added.

Does Odisha need to worry?

The current model signals need to be monitored closely, but there is no reason for panic at present, the weather expert said.

The system has not yet formed, and forecasts made seven to 10 days in advance can change significantly in subsequent model runs, particularly regarding the intensity and track of a potential cyclone.

At present, the possibility of heavy rainfall over Odisha appears to be a more reliable signal than the likelihood of damaging cyclone-force winds, according to the assessment.

Advice for public and farmers

Pashupalak advised people and farmers to remain alert but not panic.

He cautioned against treating any single ECMWF or GFS model map circulating on social media as a confirmed cyclone forecast.

There is no need at this stage to panic-buy and stock essential items, harvest paddy prematurely, cancel travel plans or take other major decisions based solely on the current model projections, he said.

The next three to five days of model updates will be particularly important. If the ECMWF and GFS continue to indicate the system and ensemble models show greater consistency, confidence in the forecast will increase.