Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted the formation of a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 26, 2026, with the system likely to intensify further and move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts over the following two days.

According to the IMD's morning bulletin issued today, a low-pressure area formed over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal at 5.30 am. The system is expected to persist over the same region and intensify into a depression on October 24.

The weather system is then likely to move west-northwestwards and strengthen into a deep depression on October 25 before intensifying into a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26.

The IMD said the system would continue to intensify while moving west-northwestwards towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts during the subsequent two days.

Cyclone intensity forecast varies across models

The IMD's North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis indicates differences among weather prediction models regarding the system's potential intensity.

Numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF, ECAI and NCEP GFS, indicate the possibility of the system intensifying up to the very severe cyclonic storm category.

However, artificial intelligence-based models, including Mithuna and IMD's FGN and FCN, suggest that the system may intensify only up to the cyclonic storm category.

The eventual intensity and movement of the system will depend on its further development and subsequent meteorological assessments.