Bhubaneswar: Weather models have indicated the possibility of a developing weather system over the Bay of Bengal intensifying into a depression and moving towards the south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts in the coming days. However, it is early to determine whether the system will develop into a cyclone and make landfall along the Odisha coast.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining areas of Thailand and Myanmar persisted over the same region on Wednesday, October 21, extending up to 5.8 km above mean sea level.

The system is likely to emerge over the north Andaman Sea on Wednesday. It is then expected to move west-northwestwards, leading to the formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around October 23.

The weather system is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further over the subsequent three days, the IMD said.

What do weather models indicate?

There is strong agreement among various weather models on the initial stages of the system's development, including its emergence over the north Andaman Sea on October 21 and the formation of a low-pressure area over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal around October 23.

Most models suggest that the system could intensify into a depression over the east-central Bay of Bengal between October 23 and 24.

Some models also indicate further intensification and movement towards the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts.

Will Odisha face a cyclone threat?

The possibility of the system developing into a cyclone cannot be ruled out at this stage, as models indicate the potential for further intensification. However, the available guidance does not confirm that a cyclone will form or that it will make landfall in Odisha.

The system's future intensity, movement and proximity to the coast will depend on how it develops over the Bay of Bengal in the coming days.

For Odisha, the next few days will be crucial in determining whether the developing system poses a significant weather threat. Further updates from the IMD and subsequent model forecasts will be important in establishing its likely track and potential impact along the coast.