New Delhi: The government's calibrated 8.5 per cent hike in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices for domestic airlines may offer short-term relief to oil marketing companies (OMCs), according to analysts. 

Analysts at global brokerage firm Nomura have estimated that state-owned fuel retailers continue to lose heavily on ATF sales amid a war-driven surge in global oil prices.

At current prices, the brokerage has estimated that OMCs are losing around Rs 64 per litre on domestic ATF sales, implying a marketing loss of approximately $109 per barrel.

Based on prevailing prices, the brokerage pegs annualised ATF losses at Rs 23,600 crore for Indian Oil Corporation, Rs 9,500 crore for Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Rs 5,300 crore for Hindustan Petroleum Corporation.

ATF prices for domestic carriers were raised by Rs 8,289.04 per kilolitre or 8.56 per cent, to Rs 1,04,927.18 per kilolitre from Rs 96,638.14 per kilolitre last month.

The hike, though significant, falls well short of what global oil price movements would have warranted.

Meanwhile, prices for foreign carriers and non-scheduled, charter, and ad hoc operators were raised more steeply by 114.5 per cent to Rs 2,07,341.22 per kilolitre.

While ATF accounts for only 2-6 per cent of total marketing volumes for OMCs, state-owned retailers dominate the segment with over 90 per cent market share, with approximately 65 per cent of India's total ATF sales going to domestic airlines.

Moreover, rates for commercial LPG and premium petrol were also increased on Wednesday amid firm energy trends, though OMCs continue to incur losses on domestic LPG cylinders.

Commercial LPG prices were hiked by around 10 per cent.

On city gas distributors, Nomura flagged Gujarat Gas as potentially the worst hit, citing its higher reliance on short-term and spot liquefied natural gas procurement, where prices have doubled since the conflict began on February 28, 2026.

The brokerage also noted that the windfall tax is not applicable to Reliance Industries' special economic zone refinery.

Shares of state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Thursday -- like IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL -- traded up to 5 per cent lower on the BSE during the intra-day trade.