New Delhi: While US President Donald Trump has announced the imposition of 50 per cent tariffs on India's exports, this is expected to impact only 4.8 per cent of the total goods and services exports of the country worldwide, which surpassed a record $820 billion in 2024-25, according to official estimates. 

The 50 per cent tariff being imposed by the Trump administration will be applicable only to exports worth $40 billion to the US, a senior official said.

Besides exports worth more than $30 billion that include pharmaceuticals and certain electronic items such as smartphones, semiconductors, and energy are so far secure from higher duties as these are still under an exemption list.

India exported drugs and pharmaceuticals as well as electronics products (mostly smartphones) to the tune of $10.5 billion and $14.6 billion in FY25, constituting 29 per cent of its overall outbound shipments to the US.

Petroleum exports, worth $4.09 billion in FY25, are also currently secure from Trump’s fresh tariffs thanks to energy being on the exemption list as well. Indian exports to the US stood at $86.51 billion in FY25.

Trump has not yet included these key industries in the new tariffs that are slated to come into effect in the next 21 days.

India's exports to the US have increased since January this year, as a result of this exemption, because there are no duties on these goods. From January to June 2025, the US's percentage of India's merchandise exports increased from 17-18 per cent to over 20 per cent.

This growth reflects front-loading by exporters ahead of the tariff hike in August and the tariff exemptions on smartphones and drugs, which were spared from the 10 per cent baseline duty introduced in April, according to industry experts.

Although India's total exports grew less than 2 per cent in Q1 FY26 and contracted more than 4 per cent in Q4 FY25, according to Commerce Ministry data, exports to the US made up roughly 23 per cent of India's total shipments in the June quarter of FY26 and the first quarter of FY25.

However, there are still risks because Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200 per cent on drugs made abroad, and depending on future US decisions, smartphone exemptions might also be removed.

India's exports to the US totalled $25.52 billion in Q1 FY26, an increase of almost 23 per cent from the previous year. For the quarter, total trade was $32.41 billion, and for FY25, it exceeded $86 billion, as per the Commerce Ministry data.

(IANS)