Bhubaneswar: India is likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, according to the latest Long Range Forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The weather agency has projected that the country as a whole will receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of ±4 per cent. The forecast indicates a high probability of below-normal rainfall across the country during the four-month rainy season.

Region-wise, the IMD expects normal rainfall over Northeast India, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, South Peninsular India and Northwest India are likely to witness below-normal rainfall, with precipitation levels expected to remain below their respective seasonal averages.

The forecast is particularly significant for the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which covers most of India's rainfed agricultural regions. Rainfall over this crucial agricultural belt is also expected to remain below normal.

According to the IMD, most parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal seasonal rainfall between June and September. However, some areas of Northwest and Northeast India, eastern parts of the southern peninsula, adjoining east-central regions and isolated pockets of East India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

At present, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are transitioning towards El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Climate model forecasts suggest that El Niño is likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season, the IMD said.

Meanwhile, neutral conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean under the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) system. The latest forecasts indicate that neutral IOD conditions are expected to continue throughout the monsoon season.