Bhubaneswar: A low pressure area is likely to form over the north Bay of Bengal around July 3 under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation expected to develop over the northwest Bay of Bengal off the Odisha coast, according to the India Meteorological Department's extended range outlook.

Most numerical weather prediction models, including IMD-GFS, NCEP-GFS, NCMRWF Mithuna and ECMWF, indicate that the upper-air cyclonic circulation is likely to develop around July 2. Under its influence, a low pressure area is expected to form over the north Bay of Bengal around July 3 or 4.

The models suggest that the system is likely to move in a west-northwesterly direction after its formation. Both the NCEP-GFS and ECMWF deterministic models indicate that the low pressure area could become more marked over the following two to three days as it moves inland.

Forecasts from ensemble models, including GEFS and the Mithuna ensemble system, also support the likelihood of the low pressure area's formation over the north Bay of Bengal.

Artificial intelligence-based weather models, including Pangu Weather and GraphCast using the Mithuna model, have also projected the development of a low pressure area over the northeast Bay of Bengal around July 3. Except for the FourCastNet model, the other AI models indicate that the system could become more marked by July 4 and may intensify into a depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal around July 5.

However, forecasters have cautioned that there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the exact location of the system and the extent of its intensification. Different weather models show a wide variation in both the area where the system may develop and its eventual strength.

Despite these differences, there is broad agreement among most forecasting models that an upper-air cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over the northwest Bay of Bengal in the coming days, leading to the formation of a low pressure area over the north Bay of Bengal in the first week of July. The system is then expected to move west-northwestwards and become more marked.